February often feels like the longest month of the year. The holidays are over, the weather is cold, and everyone is waiting for the first signs of spring. That is why Groundhog Day remains such a beloved tradition. It gives us a moment of fun and hope right in the middle of winter.
On this day, all eyes turn to a small town in Pennsylvania. We wait to see if a famous groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow. It might sound strange to rely on a rodent for a weather forecast, but millions of people tune in every year to watch the ceremony.
In 2026, Groundhog Day falls on Monday, February 2. Whether you are hoping for warmer weather or you just love the history behind this unique holiday, it is helpful to know what to expect. Here is everything you need to know about the upcoming celebrations, the accuracy of the predictions, and how this tradition started.
When and where to watch the event
Groundhog Day is always celebrated on February 2. In 2026, this falls on a Monday. While it is not a federal public holiday, and schools and businesses remain open, it is still widely observed across the United States and Canada.
The main event takes place at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. This is where the “Inner Circle”—a group of local dignitaries wearing top hats and tuxedos—presides over the ceremony. According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, the grounds usually open to the public very early in the morning, around 3:00 a.m. ET.
The crowd waits in the dark for hours, enjoying music and fireworks, until Phil emerges from his burrow at sunrise, usually shortly after 7:20 a.m. ET. If you cannot make the trip to Pennsylvania, there are official livestreams available online so you can watch the prediction from the comfort of your warm home.
The legend of the shadow
The rules of Groundhog Day are simple, but they are taken very seriously by the fans of the holiday. The prediction depends entirely on whether Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow when he comes out of his burrow.
- If Phil sees his shadow: He gets scared and runs back into his burrow. This predicts six more weeks of winter.
- If Phil does not see his shadow: He stays above ground. This predicts an early spring.
It is important to note that the groundhog does not actually “decide” the weather. The tradition is based on sunlight. If the sky is clear and the sun is shining, a shadow appears (predicting more winter). If the day is cloudy and gray, there is no shadow (predicting spring).
From badgers to groundhogs: A brief history
The roots of Groundhog Day go back much further than the 1887 celebration in Punxsutawney. The tradition is linked to an early Christian holiday called Candlemas, which was celebrated on February 2. This date is exactly halfway between the start of winter and the start of spring.
In Europe, there was a folk song that said: “If Candlemas be fair and bright, come, Winter, have another flight. If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, go Winter, and come not again.”
When German immigrants settled in Pennsylvania, they brought this tradition with them. However, in Germany, they used a badger to predict the weather. When they arrived in America, badgers were hard to find, but groundhogs were plentiful. The groundhog became the new weather prophet.
In 1887, a newspaper editor named Clymer Freas organized the first official Groundhog Day at Gobbler’s Knob. He declared Punxsutawney Phil the official forecaster, and the tradition has continued ever since.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
It is fun to believe in the legend, but you might be wondering if Phil is actually good at predicting the weather. The answer depends on who you ask.
The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club states that Phil is accurate 100% of the time. However, meteorological data tells a different story. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Phil has only been right about 35% to 40% of the time over the last century.
In fact, Phil predicts “six more weeks of winter” far more often than he predicts an early spring.
The competition: Staten Island Chuck
Phil isn’t the only weather-predicting animal. His biggest rival is Staten Island Chuck, a groundhog from the Staten Island Zoo in New York. Chuck has a much higher success rate. Records show that Chuck’s predictions have been accurate roughly 80% of the time.
In 2025, the two famous groundhogs disagreed. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow and called for more winter, while Staten Island Chuck did not see his shadow and predicted an early spring.
Why we still celebrate
If the accuracy rates are low, why do we still care? The answer lies in the community and the fun of the tradition. February is a difficult time of year for many people. The excitement of the New Year has faded, and the weather is often gloomy.
Groundhog Day offers a harmless distraction. It is a day where we can all agree to look at a rodent and hope for sunshine. It connects us to history and nature. For the town of Punxsutawney, it is a massive event that brings in thousands of tourists and supports the local economy.
Whether you trust the forecast or not, it is a reminder that seasons change. Even if Phil predicts six more weeks of winter, we know that spring is eventually on its way.
Frequently asked questions
Is Punxsutawney Phil the same groundhog every year?
According to the folklore of the Inner Circle, there has only been one Phil since 1887. The legend says he drinks a magical “elixir of life” every summer at the Groundhog Picnic, which extends his life by seven years. In reality, groundhogs in captivity usually live about 10 years, so there have likely been many Phils over the decades.
What happens if it rains on Groundhog Day?
If it is raining or heavily overcast, Phil will not see his shadow. According to the tradition, this means an early spring is coming.
Can I visit Gobbler’s Knob at other times of the year?
Yes, you can visit the site of the prediction year-round. However, Phil himself lives in a climate-controlled burrow at the localized library in the town center, where visitors can see him through a viewing window.
Are there other animals that predict the weather?
Yes. Across the United States, there are many other predictors, including General Beauregard Lee in Georgia and Dunkirk Dave in New York. There is even a distinct lack of groundhogs in some places—Louisiana uses a nutria, and Oregon has used a hedgehog in the past.
Preparing for the season ahead
As we wait for Monday, February 2, 2026, we can look forward to the change in seasons. Whether the forecast calls for snow or sunshine, having a plan makes everything easier.
Groundhog Day is a great time to check in on your goals for the year. Just like we wait for the seasons to turn, we often wait for the right moment to make big changes in our lives. If you are planning travel for the spring or sending support to family members abroad, getting organized early can save you stress.
Let’s hope for a cloudy morning in Punxsutawney and an early spring for everyone.