How have rising costs impacted fertility rates, and what does the future look like?
Over the past decade, there has been a noticeable trend across many developed nations that fertility rates have declined according to data from the World Bank, while the cost of raising a family has increased.
The Republic of Ireland, Sweden, and Luxembourg experienced the most significant percentage drops in fertility rates between 2013 and 2023, falling by 28%, 26%, and 23%, respectively. Despite differing levels of economic prosperity, these countries are all seeing fewer births per woman, with Ireland projected to see just 1.23 births per woman by 2035.
While these declines in fertility often coincide with rising living costs, this is not always the case. For example, Luxembourg experienced a sharp fertility decline and a 26% increase in family essentials costs, but Sweden's cost increase was more modest, at just 14%.
On the other hand, countries like Lithuania and the United States have experienced rising fertility rates. Lithuania’s rate rose 19% over the past decade and is expected to be at 1.46 births per woman by 2035, while the US saw a 12% rise. Notably, Lithuania is one of the few countries where the cost of family essentials has decreased by 6%.
However, in some countries where fertility rates are falling or remaining flat, like Greece and Denmark, the cost of family essentials has surged by 110% and 99%, respectively. This suggests that improving affordability might help raise birth rates, though cultural, social, and policy factors also likely play significant roles.